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گفتگوهای اقلیمی - راهنمای عدم قطعیت/Uncertainty guidance note in AR5

گفتگوهای اقلیمی

Climate Dialogue

مطالعات زیادی در کشورمان در مورد شبیه سازی چشم انداز آتی اقلیم تحت سناریوهای اقلیمی انجام می شود که جای بحث عدم قطعیت در آنها خالی است؛ در همین ارتباط هم سوالاتی توسط مراجعه کنندگان محترم به این وبلاگ وجود دارد. 

هیات بین الدول تغییر اقلیم با هدف شفاف و یکسان سازی موضوع عدم قطعیت در گزارش پنجم، در جولای 2010 تمام سرویراستاران AR5 را در کارگاهی با موضوع یادشده جمع کرد. پس از طرح مباحث مختلف، گزارشی با عنوان راهنمای عدم قطعیت برای سرویراستاران گزارش پنجم تهیه شد. عنوان گزارش اینست:

Guidance Note for Lead Authors of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on Consistent Treatment of Uncertainties

تکیه گزارش پنجم در تبیین موضوع قطعیت یافته هابه دو معیار زیر بوده است:

الف-اطمینان به اعتبار یک یافته بر اساس نوع، مقدار، کیفیت، سازگاری آن با شواهد(از قبیل سازگاری آن با نظریات مختلف، داده ها، مدل ها و نظرات کارشناسی) و درجه توافق. اطمینان به صورت کیفی بیان می شود،

ب-سنجش کمی عدم قطعیت یک یافته به صورت احتمالاتی و بر اساس تحلیل آماری مشاهدات یا نتایج مدل ها و یا نظرات کارشناسی بیان می شود.

عدم قطعیت موضوعی است که در تاروپود پژوهش های مرتبط با چشم انداز تغییر اقلیم در هم تنیده شده و جدا کردن آن موجب از هم پاشیدن کل این گونه پژوهش می گردد.

برای دریافت راهنمای تبیین عدم قطعیت بر روی این لینک کلیک کنید.

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