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گفتگوهای اقلیمی - پایگاه ESGF-داده های روزانه مدل های GCM سری CMIP5

گفتگوهای اقلیمی

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در سال 2008 برنامه مطالعات اقلیمی سازمان جهانی هواشناسی کارگروه هماهنگ کننده مدل های جفت شده اقلیمی را با عضویت مراکز بین المللی فعال در زمینه مدل سازی اقلیمی را با هدف ایجاد مجموعه ای از مدل های اقلیمی : الف- برای شناخت مکانیسم های موثر در شبیه سازی ضعیف بازخوردهای بین چرخه کربن و ابرناکی، ب- آزمایش پیش بینی پذیری اقلیمی و شناسایی توانایی مدل ها در پیش بینی اقلیم در مقیاس زمانی دهه و ج- از همه مهمتر اینکه چرا مدل های با ساختار فیزیکی، دینامیکی، عددی و شرایط اولیه یکسان دامنه مختلفی از پیش بینی ها را ارائه می دهند، ایجاد کرد.  در سال 2011 اولین خروجی مدل های سری CMIP5در دسترس کارگروه مذکور برای انجام مطالعات برای نیل به سه هدف فوق در دسترس قرار گرفت، در 

درسال 2013 مقالاتی به استناد به داده های یاد شده منتشر گردید و نهایتا گزارش پنجم هیات بین الدول تغییر اقلیم بر اساس داده های مجموعه مدل های سری CMIP5 منتشر شد. در جدول زیر مشخصات 40 مدل اقلیمی مجموعه فوق نشان داده شده است.

در کشورمان تاکنون اکثر مطالعات انجام شده در حوزه مدل سازی تغییر اقلیم بر اساس داده های سری CMIP3  انجام شده است؛ لذا انجام مطالعات و به روز رسانی آنهابا داده های CMIP5 برای کاهش عدم قطعیت مدل سازی تغییر اقلیم دهه های آتی امری ضروری است؛ در این بین داده های در مقیاس زمانی روزانه مورد نیاز طیف وسیعی از محققان می باشد. مهمترین پایگاه دریافت داده های CMIP5که پایگاه رسمی هیات بین الدول تغییر اقلیم نیز می باشد، ESGF می باشد. برای ورود به این پایگاه می توانید بر روی این لینک کلیک کرده و مطابق توضیحات زیر داده های روزانه را دریافت نمایید:

گام اول: وارد سایت فوق شوید. شکل صفحه به صورت زیر می باشد:
گام دوم: روی آیکون Create Account کلیک نموده و مشخصات خود را وارد نمایید،
گام سوم: با تکمیل مرحله 2 یک لینک فعال سازی (openid) به ایمیلتان ارسال می شود که آنرا باید مطابق شکل زیر در قسمت مربوطه کپی نموده و پسوردتان را نیز وارد نمایید،
گام چهارم: با ورد به پایگاه صفحه زیر ظاهر می شود؛ از سمت چپ صفحه مدل مورد نظر را انتخاب نمایید. هر مدلی که انتخاب کردید توضیحات آن در وسط صفحه نمایش داده می شود. در وسط و پایین صفحه بر روی پورتال مدل مورد نظر کلیک کنید(با علامت پیکان آبی رنگ نشان داده شده است).
گام پنجم:با ظاهر شده پورتال مدل مورد علاقه(شکل زیر)، بر روی Available data کلیک کنید،
گام ششم:در این صفحه سناریوهای اقلیمی میتنی بر سناریوهای انتشار سری RCP و اجرای کنترل را انتخاب کنید:
گام هفتم:و نهایتا در این صفحه نوع فراسنج ها، دوره و پیش بینی های با فیزیک، آغازگری و . . . مختلف را انتخاب کنید.
اجراهای مختلف با شرایط مختلف فیزیکی، آغازگری و . . . را با علامت rip که ابتدای حروف realization، initialization و physics می باشد، نشان می دهند.

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